How much faith can I have is the chancing stimulator?Answered
My chances for getting into UT Austin is 43% (I filled out my planned extracurriculars + AP courses, so it isn't set in stone - everything is above average). How do I interpret this? Will I need to build up better extracurriculars even tho they are above average? Will my essays change anything about my chances? Do demographics play a role? This is my dream school and my target... would you recommend to have other targets?
What are some similar schools that I can aim for? (with a good research and psychology program)
I know these are a lot of questions so I appreciate your help and thank you for your time!
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4 answers
Hi @flora!
You just interpret it as UT Austin being a hard target for you. I experimented with the chancing and it's surprising that the chancing weighs demographics much more heavily than course rigor and extracurriculars. Here's what I found:
To check for the effect of demographics, I started with Asian male (highest disadvantage), which gave chance A. Then, I changed it to African American female (highest advantage), which gave chances 2A+2.
For ECs, I used my own. To reach 2A+2 in the Asian male situation, I had to put all my extracurriculars to the max tier AND add 22 AP classes.
In-state vs Out-of-State difference = 9%
You're at an advantage if you're in-state and in the top 6%.
What kind of school are you looking for? T50 or T100 for psychology? In-state (if yes, are you from Texas) or out-of-state? Your response will help me give a good list.
The chancing simulator will give you accurate estimates of your chances. Its only limitation is that it cannot determine how your essays, teacher recommendations, extenuating circumstances, and other subjective factors will impact your odds of admission. It can simply tell you that an average of X% of students with your academic profile and EC rankings get accepted to a particular school. Demographics play a large role as well.
Since the 43% you received is based on your quantifiable metrics, your essays will be the main thing that can increase your chances. You can also increase your chances of admission to target schools by building a balanced school list. I recommend applying to 3 safeties, 4 targets, and 3 reaches.
Hope this helps!
I don't know how accurate the chances calculator is. However, if you are top 10 % of your class and live in Texas you get automatic admission to any Texas public colleges, like UT Austin. So, I wouldn't worry too much, since you said you're in top 10% and live in Texas (in some of the comments) :D
43% means that you have a 43/100 chance of getting accepted. In other words, you have a 57 percent chance to get rejected.
Your chance of acceptance
Your chancing factors
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Does the chancing stimulator take "good essays" into consideration? Would that change anything, since essays are top priority as well? The role of demographics is pretty interesting loll. Top 6% would mean an automatic admission into UT Austin, but I'm Top 10%, so I wouldn't want to rely too much on that. T50 for psychology. I'm from Texas but I would like a list with a combination of both in-state and out of state.