Does Yale send out likely letters to applicants in the Regular Decision pool? If so, what might trigger receiving one and how common are they?
Yes, Yale does send "likely letters" to a select group of applicants in the Regular Decision pool. A likely letter is essentially a notice that is sent before the official admissions decision date indicating that an applicant's chance of admission is extremely high.
Typically, these letters are sent to exceptional students, those who genuinely stand out among the thousands of applicants. This could be due to a variety of factors - students might have an extremely high academic index (grades, rigorous coursework, test scores if available), noteworthy extracurricular achievements, especially at the regional, national, or international levels (Tier 1 or 2 activities), or have overcome significant personal challenges, among other factors.
However, it's important to note that these letters are not sent to all accepted students. Many students who are admitted do not receive a likely letter. Likely letters are not an integral part of the admissions process. Yale, like other universities, uses them as a way to express enthusiasm about particularly impressive candidates.
To put it into perspective, it's estimated that well under 10% of admitted students receive likely letters. So although getting one is a very positive sign, not receiving a likely letter doesn't indicate anything negative about your application – it's simply that most letters of acceptance are sent on the official decision release date.
Remember that the process behind these likely letters can be somewhat enigmatic, and decisions can be influenced by various factors beyond any individual's control. Therefore, one should not base their hope or stress on receiving one. The best you can do is present the strongest application possible and then wait for the official decision from Yale.
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