Will colleges take into account my intended major.

If you're aiming for musical theater or drama, I assume you're applying to Tisch? The way that most universities work is that there are several smaller "colleges" within the larger university, and while you won't apply directly into your major, you do apply into the specific college that houses your major (like a College of Engineering, College of Business, or College of Arts).

If you're applying to Tisch (or to any other specialized college of arts at any other school), you're going to be asked to submit a portfolio or audition (or both) that will make up the backbone of your application. You'll still need to hit a basic academic mark that more or less assures them that you'd be able to handle the academic rigor of a school like NYU, but much, much more weight will be placed on your portfolio than on your high school grades and coursework, because they know the best candidates for creative arts programs won't always be the highest achieving academically.

So yes, they will take your intended major into account, and your chances will actually depend really heavily on your ability to demonstrate your experience and abilities with theater and drama on your application. Because of this, chancing systems like CollegeVine's can't really accurately represent your chances—as the admissions committee will be primarily judging how you would fit into NYU's program as an artist, and that's subjective to a point where a chancing system wouldn't really work. So take that 1-5% with a grain of salt; the general chances you see around here aren't all that accurate for students applying to creative majors, where your portfolio/audition are really going to define your chances. But, in general, to raise your hypothetical chances further, continue practicing your craft, gaining experience, and put together a strong portfolio to send them in the fall along whatever specific guidelines Tisch gives.