Class of 2026 Acceptance Rates will be lower !
Don't shoot the messenger! Some of you know I like to keep track of stats regarding admissions. So far this season, the colleges that have been reporting applications size have been reporting an increase in applications vs. last year. If they hold the same number of admits, that means acceptance rates will go down. While I'm sharing my predictions, please answer the poll if you disagree. And explain your position.
Lafayette 10480 vs 8262, admit rate will be 32.12% vs. 40.74%
Colgate 21253 vs 17540, 14.25% vs 17.19%
Notre Dame 26500 vs 23462, 13.44% vs 15.07%
Tufts 34800 vs 31198, 10.25% vs 11.43%
UVA 50909 vs 48011, 19.44% vs 20.62%
NYU 105000 vs 100131, 12.38% vs 12.98%
Brown 50909 vs 46568, 4.95% vs 5.45%
Yale 50022 vs 46905, 4.33% vs 4.62%
Bowdoin 9397 vs 9325, 8.75% vs 8.82%
Boston U 80797 75733 17.18 vs 18.33%
Union 8436 vs 7622, 37.04% vs 41%
UNC 57198 vs 53735, 19.73% vs 21%
William Mary 18050 vs 17475, 35.82% vs 37%
Boston College 40484 vs 39877 18.61% vs 18.9%
UCLA 149700 vs 139490, 10% vs 10.8%
UC Berkeley 128100 vs 112821, 8% vs 13.65% (due to lawsuit)
My predictions for some other schools are:
Harvard 3.2% vs. 3.43% Class of 25
Columbia 3.4% vs. 3.66% Class of 25
Caltech 3.6% vs 3.92% Class of 25
Stanford 3.7% vs. 3.95% Class of 25
MIT 3.8% vs 4.03% Class of 25
Princeton 4% vs 4% Flat
Duke 5.4% vs 5.76% Class of 25
UPenn 5.5% vs 5.76% Class of 25
Dartmouth 5.7% vs 6.12% Class of 25
This definitely sounds reasonable. Personally, I think it is too early to tell, but I wouldn't be surprised if acceptance rates generally fall like you said. I'm personally curious about the class of 2028 (when highly competitive colleges drop their test-optional policy). I'm wondering if potentially there could be a decrease in applicants by then, but the whole admissions process is truly something to just sit back and watch. :)
I think for the Class of 2028 we are going to see a few schools like Harvard, Columbia, Caltech, Stanford dip under 3%. No one is building dorms on these campuses. Not only is there a national housing shortage exacerbated by the pandemic, there is a student housing crisis. That's why UC Berkeley will have to cut 5100+ admits this cycle and hold that indefinitely. There are 15 people crammed in single family houses around Berkeley.
Princeton is building a new residential college that will be open fall 2022.
That's 1 reason I put Princeton as flat 4.0% I think they will admit more students but the applications will go up as well.
That sounds really reasonable considering they typically admit similar numbers of students each year (not counting UC Berkeley) It may be too early to tell, but what trends do you think the stats for the class of 2027 will see?
For class of 2027, rates will bunch up again and go lower in a cluster. I think traditionally target schools will be reach schools because everyone wants to attend a Top 25 school. I feel that someone needs to revamp the whole rankings system because there is no good reason why a Tulane should be a 9% acceptance rate school. NYU/BC/BU/Tufts/UVA/UNC/UMich/UCLA/UCBerkeley clearly better schools.
That sounds right, thanks again for taking the time to include all of these calculations!
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