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@CodeSlug
3 answers, 38 votes
 • 2 years ago •
Admissions Advice

Chancing Dropped?
Answered

Did anyones chancing just tank? Mine earlier today was normal and now many of the school on my list were nearly cut in half. Is this a bug or the new accurate calculator? Did this happen to anyone else?

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11th-grade
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@Mateojb82 years ago

Yeah same here? pretty aggressive drop too

@EllaGrace2 years ago

I think they are feeding new data (from this yr's admissions cycle) to the cv algorithm (which I believe uses some sort of ml). That being said, this yr's admit rates were absolutely brutal, so I'd expect a drop just bc this yr was pretty crazy

@EllaGrace2 years ago

Lol, right now, the college I'm gonna be attending in the fall 1% chance for me. May be a temporary thing or might just be reflecting the updated info, but, in any case, it is still possible to get into the schools you want! Don't give up hope :)

@Thatcher_B2 years ago

@EllaGrace That is super encouraging! Thank you for that info. I was feeling a little bit helpless because my dream school is a 12% for me (which is above average, but still low). It's good to know that if you put in the effort and are a great applicant, you do really well.

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@hmorton77
15 answers, 54 votes
 • 2 years ago

yup! one of their tech members posted yesterday they're updating the chancing simulator to be more accurate and be based off current trends vs. last years' or something like that. so sadly the dropped down chances are accurate

6
@Mateojb82 years ago

Can I see the link I’m interested to see it

@claiirdelune2 years ago

here's the post for people that wanna check it out: https://www.collegevine.com/questions/29908/may-2022-chancing-updates

@hmorton772 years ago

thanks for the link! i couldn't find the post again XD

[🎤 AUTHOR]@CodeSlug2 years ago

Did they add in the ED metric?

2
@lovelyplumeria
3 answers, 7 votes
 • 2 years ago

it seems this is happening to other people as well! just found this post https://www.collegevine.com/questions/29977/new-chancing-engine-will-take-some-time-to-work-out-the-bugs

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2
@aw0000001
30 answers, 48 votes
 • 2 years ago

Same for me. I am not definitively sure but I think it may be temporary as they fix stuff, and it will soon be re-adjusted. Another potential explanation would be that the new numbers reflect 2022 admit rates (which have not been updated to this website yet). Either way, it should be resolved quickly and we should just wait for the official people here to notify us.

2
[🎤 AUTHOR]@CodeSlug2 years ago

I hope so guess we can just wait and see

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