NEW Chancing Engine % Will take some time to work out the bugs
Some of you have seen a big change in your CV chancing results on your college lists. Regardless if you are high achiever or not, you are going to see some numbers that make your head scratch. Therefore, I think it's best to be patient and let the CV data scientists work out the kinks. I imagine with the new methodologies and algorithms it will take a couple weeks at least.
It does make perfect sense for the T50 schools to have lower rates this cycle than last but not 100% lower.
I'll share some quirky numbers from my list.
Yesterday I had 25% for Caltech and about 46% for MIT, today its 1% (really 1%) for Caltech and 20% for MIT.
Vandy (43%), Wash U (44%), Tufts (53%), USC (55%), ND (61%), Emory (64%), NYU (65%), UVA (72%), BU (72%), BC (77%), Wellesley (76%) might be 5 points lower butBarnard (34%), UCB (31%), UCLA (36%), Colorado College (29%), Colby (25%), Bowdoin (21%) are 20-30 points lower.
My 8 Ivys used to be 30-50% now they are 15-30%.
I'm confident that CV will get it right eventually.
Feel free to share your experience in the comments below.
I'm sure the CV Experts reading this also what to know some weird results like Hampshire College. Now that should be a 95% safety school for me because it has normally 56% admit rates but I have only a 9% chance to get in. OOF.
I think alot of it is due to the much lower acceptance rates last year from colleges. NYU for example went from 21% --> 12%. This was mainly due to more applicants at higher caliber schools but no one can be sure if that trend will keep up.
I disagree because the biggest change was not between last year and this year but for 2 cycles back. NYU is 12.2% admit rate for the Class of 2026 and 12.8% for the Class of 2025 and 21% for the Class of 2024. The difference between rates is only 0.6% from last year to this year which wouldn't change the CV chancing engine that much. There must be bugs in the program that need to be worked out.
Yeah that's really interesting. My chances for ivies only went down a bit (15-30% to 10-25%) but my two lowest chances are Caltech at 1% and actually Hampshire College with 7%, which is lower than all of my ivy chances. I am curious to see if anyone else also had chances for a school called Hampshire College be super low.
Hampshire college which I just added to see the results is 9%. Which is bonkers. Since it's a 60% admit college. It should be a 95% safety school.
Your chance of acceptance
Your chancing factors
Community Guidelines
To keep this community safe and supportive:
- Be kind and respectful!
- Keep posts relevant to college admissions and high school.
- Don’t ask “chance-me” questions. Use CollegeVine’s chancing instead!