Is CollegeVine overestimating my admissions chances?

Answered

If you're from an underrepresented minority background (Latinx as well as Black, Indigenous, etc.), that's why your chances look significantly higher than you might expect.

To fully disclose where I'm coming from, I'm both very familiar with CV's data and its sources and have worked with a couple hundred students over the last few years. And there is indeed truly a significant boost at schools that practice "holistic" admissions for students from URM backgrounds. To go a little more deeply into how that works, it mainly appears in the academic thresholds you need to clear to be considered in the later rounds of a school's admissions process. How this works under the hood is that schools compare you directly to people from similar backgrounds and situations to you — that includes both racial or ethnic background as well as your state, so for instance students from states with very high average SAT scores (like Missouri or Utah) will need to clear a higher bar than students from states with lower averages (like Oklahoma or West Virginia). In practice, that means that people from different backgrounds but with similar profiles may have vastly different chances at schools like Smith or NYU because of that difference in circumstances.

(Incidentally, states with lower scores will usually be the states where the SAT is mandatory for all high school students to take — because in states where it's not mandatory, students who aren't aiming for college usually won't take them. You can see averages on Prepscholar here: https://blog.prepscholar.com/average-sat-scores-by-state-most-recent. Both public and private schools may also have lower, or higher, marks for students from their local state or state area vs. ones from farther away.)

Now to read this a little more deeply, this does not necessarily mean that it's easier for you to get into these schools; it means that you can have lower marks (GPA, test scores, course rigor, etc.) than the averages for students admitted to those schools and still make it through the academic filter at the start of the admissions process. Your essays will still be very important; for instance, if you have a 50% chance at a school like Grinnell, that means that your essays need to be stronger than 5 out of the 10 students who apply there to get in. Less than strong essays will make these chances look overinflated after the fact. But if your essays are strong, it's not ridiculous to think that you could get into Barnard 8 out of 10 times.

But incidentally, I also don't think you're giving yourself enough credit. A 3.67 unweighted GPA means you've averaged an A- throughout all classes, which is hard to do. And your ECs involve multiple leadership positions in pretty significant activities — which is usually the bar anyone needs to clear to be considered for top schools. All in all, from experience, this seems realistic to me as long as you can follow through on your actual application with strong essays.