If the Chance tool predicts a school as a safety, does it reliably indicate I’m in good standing?

Answered

I’m going to be a senior this upcoming year.

I recently used Chancing to calculate my chance of admission to my #1 school, University of Wisconsin Madison.

It says my chances are at 88-92% (safety) which seems extremely optimistic.

My SAT is 1230 compared to Wisconsin whose average is 1360 and lower end of the middle 50% is 1280.

My GPA is 3.69 compared to Wisconsin’s average of 3.80.

My course load is impressive as by the end of senior year I will have completed at least 11 honors courses, 10 AP courses, and 2-4 courses at the University of Pittsburgh.

My extracurriculars are very good as I hold leadership positions in multiple Soccer organizations (one community, one regional among 3 different states). I also play soccer competitively for a club although I don’t letter varsity or JV as I chose other activities over school sport. I play Trumpet for my High School’s Marching Band (and organized sheet music for our stand songs if it looks more impressive) and university of Pittsburgh pep band as well playing Piano for Carnegie Mellon University (I at a level where I can play the tougher pieces of composers like Chopin, Rachmaninov, Mozart etc.). I’m also in Model UN. Those are the bigger ECs, although I have a couple more.

I’m half Taiwanese half Ashkenazi Jewish (Practicing), although I’m not sure if it took that into account.

I’m from a wealthier middle class family in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, although I attend an urban public school where around half of the students are low income.

But does my impressive extracurriculars, extremely heavy course load and diversity (idk if Asian Jew is something that looks good or not) overcome my poor SAT score and below average GPA?

Also when I see my prediction for University of Illinois Champaign, a school with similar if not more lenient score averages, it predicts 70-80% (Target), which I don’t understand.

So overall the main question is does the chancing tool reliably tell me I’m in very good standing to gain admission to University of Wisconsin Madison when they put me at 88-92 (safety)?