Can someone at CV back up why applicants should submit SAT scores 60 pts or ACT score 3 pts within the 25% lower band?

Answered

I researched this as well and there is no data to support that SAT scores are down 60 pts or ACT scores are down 3 pts this application cycle.

I disagree with their assumptions, except for 97%+ and above testers, and here is why:

-Historically when schools like UChicago, Smith, Bowdoin, Pitzer went test-optional these things happened - a.) They received more applications and their acceptance rates went down. b.) Test scores went up because only those who had good or excellent scores opted to submit them. In fact, some researchers have suggested that those who do not submit scores to historically test-optional colleges have an SAT score of 125 pts lower or 4 points lower on the ACT. So there is implied Standardized Test inflation at historically test-optional colleges. Therefore, not much will change at UChicago, Bowdoin, etc this year but we can guess that at the T20 schools (that have new COVID-19 Test-Opt rules) there is a possibility that test scores that are published next Spring will show an up-tick, not a downtick, and since more HS seniors will be applying to T20 schools, the admit rates could be much lower, not higher. Remember 20% of Harvard and 8% or MIT accepted Class of 24' students is on a gap year which puts huge pressure on just 2 colleges in the Top 20. They are either going to have to accept more students and expand their Freshman class or their are going to accept the same amount of people as last year and admit rates are going to be like 3.5% at Harvard or 6.8% at MIT.

-As you wrote, if CollegeBoard and ACT.org have said test scores are down 0.50%-0.75% that does not support a 60 Pts drop which would be 9.4% lower, nor a 3 pt drop which will be 13.6% lower. I do think that at the 97%-99.9% test score range which are applicants who typically score 1460-1600 or 32-36, these high achieving types may have lower scores that support the 60 pt difference or 3 pt difference because of the following factors.

97%+ Test Scorers

They could not take the SAT or ACT multiple times like 2 to 4 to tweak or super-score their tests. It is very well known that high achievers fall into 2 categories, those who just score extremely high on standardized tests without trying (this doesn't apply to them) and the grinders who are most of the high achievers that have to study, practice, test over and over to get their desired score. A grinder might have to submit a 1460 or a 32 to an Ivy league this year, where in the past they could study and take 2 more tests and get a 1550 or a 35. If Vinay's justification is based on this, then I would say he is only partially correct for the cream of the crop.

For 78% to 96% Test Scorers this could be problematic

For the applicants who are scoring 1180 to 1450 or 25-31, this may be like shooting yourself in the foot. An 1180 or 25 is like a 78% percentile score but 1120 / 22 is a 70% SAT score and 64% ACT score respectively. An 8% to 12% drop is not going to fly in my opinion because as you get closer to base mean scores the differences are negligible at 0.50% to 0.70% as reported by the testing organizations. I will say that if CV knows something that I do not know like many colleges in the Top 200 or those who traditionally accept say 33% to 60% are going to be scrambling to fill seats next year because of fewer Int'l students, fewer college applicants in general, unknowns about returning to campus Fall 2021, and lack of interest in applying to schools that are only going to offer remote learning, then scores will be down across the board for admitted students because all these types of colleges will be lowering standards, and accepting kids in a normal application cycle they would have rejected. There isn't a lot of inside information being publically discussed how good or terrible Higher Education is doing so this must have something to do with it, not so much that kids are getting lower test scores.

For under 78% Test Scorers

I recommend not to follow this guideline.